President Trump said Tuesday that his administration will “make a decision on Iran very soon,” as pressure on the regime in Tehran reaches a level not seen in decades.
Trump spoke to reporters at the White House before leaving for a campaign rally in Alaska, Kurdistan24 reported. He did not tip his hand on what the decision will be.
He did offer a blunt assessment of the regime. “Iran is a failed country. They have no economy. They have 300% inflation,” Trump said. He added that Iran has no money and is not paying its troops.
A blockade that has choked off Iran’s oil
The numbers back him up. Iran’s oil exports have effectively stopped under the U.S. naval blockade, Iran International reported. Data from the ship-tracking firm Kpler showed no Iranian crude or condensate loadings at all in September, the first month like that since the 1979 revolution.
The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its forecast for Iran’s economy. It now expects a 7.6% contraction in 2026, worse than the 5.4% drop it projected in July and worse than Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other neighbors.
Without oil money, a regime that funds terror groups across the region is running short of cash.
Tehran is talking, and making demands
Iran says it is preparing a reply. Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Tuesday that Iran is finalizing its response to U.S. comments on a proposal submitted in New York, according to Iran International.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, claimed Washington had accepted “some” of Tehran’s seven conditions for lowering tensions, through mediators in Qatar and Oman. Iranian officials still call the U.S. response insufficient.
Tehran’s demands include ending the blockade and releasing billions of dollars in frozen assets. In other words, Iran wants the pressure lifted before it changes its behavior.
The regime is also making threats. The Wall Street Journal reported that Iranian officials privately warned their forces could move into neighboring countries if the U.S. resumes strikes. Fresh attacks hit commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday.
The Houthis and Saudi Arabia
The decision comes days after Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen hit Saudi Arabia. A Houthi missile strike on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport on Saturday killed 13 people and injured more than 300, according to Saudi authorities cited by Iran International. A follow-up attack on Sunday killed one more.
Trump said he spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman about the strikes and said the Houthis are “misbehaving very badly,” according to the Times of Israel. Iran International reported that Trump suggested Tehran was behind the attacks. Iran has long armed the Houthis, and Reuters reported in July that Revolutionary Guard commanders and equipment were flown into Yemen.
Politics will not drive the decision
Asked whether the Nov. 3 midterms could change his thinking, Trump said, “No, it has no impact,” the Times of Israel reported. He argued that the end of the conflict would bring a quick drop in oil prices.
In a Truth Social post, Trump also said he does not believe China or Russia are helping Iran “at all,” because both have “too much to lose.” Some reports have claimed China supplied Iran with shoulder-fired air-defense launchers and Russia provided missiles.
Not everyone in Washington is on board. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has joined Democrats on nine votes to end the war, the Associated Press reported.
The bottom line
Iran’s rulers are broke, their oil is stuck in port, and their currency is collapsing. That is the result of real pressure, applied consistently, instead of the cash-for-promises approach of past administrations.
Now Tehran wants the blockade lifted and its frozen billions returned before it makes any real concession. Trump should not pay the regime to stop doing what it should never have done.
Whatever Trump decides, he has said the midterms will not drive it. The pressure is working. The decision should lock in those gains, not trade them away.